Increasing the accuracy of the normalization of specific energy consumption in a coal mine

N. Dreshpak
Received 19.07.2023, Revised 04.10.2023, Accepted 28.11.2023
Abstract

Purpose. To determine and compare the accuracy indicators of the forecast of normalized values of specific energy consumption in the process of controlling the energy intensity of coal production when using known and new methods of updating the regression model. Research methods. Analysis and comparison of the accuracy indicators of the calculation of the normalized values of the specific energy consumption of a coal mine when using the known and new methods of updating the regression model. Scientific novelty. A comparison of the accuracy indicators of the retrospective point forecast of the normalized values of the daily electricity consumption of a coal mine was performed using known and new methods of updating the regression model. It is proven that in the considered control period, the average values of the forecast error in the new version of the model update are lower than the similar values for the known version. Practical significance. The expediency of using a new method of renewing the regression model when normalizing the energy intensity of coal production in the considered conditions is confirmed, which is important for quality control of the energy efficiency of the production process. Results. A drawback of the known approach to updating the regression model has been identified. It consists of the fact that the data used to construct the regression dependence are not checked for homogeneity, and this can lead to a decrease in the accuracy of the forecast when determining the normalized values of energy consumption. A comparison of the accuracy indicators of the retrospective point forecast of the normalized values of the daily electricity consumption of a coal mine when using the known and new methods of updating the regression model indicates that in the considered control period, the average values of the forecast error in the new version of the model update are lower than the similar values for the known version, and for the relative value of the decrease the error was 15%. Thus, in the considered situation, the expediency of using a new method of updating the regression model is confirmed. The proposed limitation of the number of experimental data of the connected sample is accompanied by an increase in the value of the F-distribution indicator, which reduces the possibility of obtaining a combined sample with heterogeneous data, determined by the method of H. Chou. This reduces the possibility of changing the structure of the regression model due to data heterogeneity, which simplifies the procedure for forming normalized values of power consumption

Keywords:
energy efficiency control; normalization; energy intensity; energy saving; forecast accuracy; retrospective forecast

Retrieved from Vol. 21, No. 2, 2023

Pages 103–110

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Dreshpak, N. (2023). Increasing the accuracy of the normalization of specific energy consumption in a coal mine. Journal of Kryvyi Rih National University, 21(2), 103-110. https://doi.org/10.31721/2306-5451-2023-1-57-103-110
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